The Federal Reserve came to the stock market's rescue on Friday
but unless credit markets remain stable next week, the salvation
may prove little more than a brief respite from its late summer
sell-off.
"It restores confidence, but we're not out of the woods
yet," said Bill Hoskins, managing director of fixed-income
research at Mellon Capital Management, in San Franscisco.
In a surprise before the market's open on Friday, the Fed cut
the discount rate on its loans to banks to 5.75 percent from
6.25 percent. The fed funds rate on interbank loans was left
at 5.25 percent.
Hoskins said the Fed has created a safety net that makes it
possible for banks to lend to credit-worthy borrowers. But he
also said financial institutions remain leery about lending
to one another after the blowup in subprime mortgages.
Subprime loans are the lowest tier of the mortgage market where
borrowers received loans despite poor credit histories.
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If investors are looking past faltering credit markets for
cues on what to do next, the week offers only a few pieces of
economic data and a very thin calendar of corporate earnings.
Stocks, which erased nearly all of a 300-point decline in the
Dow industrials in the final hour of Thursday's trading, rocketed
higher on Friday after the Fed's move.
But the rally on Friday was not enough to prevent the major
indexes from finishing with losses for the week.
The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI: Quote, Profile, Research)
ended the week down 1.2 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500
index (.SPX: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 0.5 percent and
the Nasdaq composite index (.IXIC: Quote, Profile, Research)
declined 1.6 percent.
For the year, though, all three U.S. stock indexes are still
higher. The Dow is up 4.9 percent, the S&P is up almost
2 percent and the Nasdaq is up 3.7 percent. Friday's surge helped
the S&P recover from the previous two days, when the broad
index had given up all its gains for the year.
Investors will obviously start the new week hoping that Friday's
rebound will hold.
STOCKS MAY KEEP CLIMBING
"I'm expecting some follow-through on the upside,"
said Ralph Acampora, chart analyst and director of research
at Knight Capital Group in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Acampora noted that the decline reached the point of a 10 percent
pullback from all-time highs in the major indexes, in technical
parlance a "correction" that washes out excesses.
Secondary indexes had an even steeper pullback.
"I'm not looking for it to be huge by any means, but I
think we'll get a little more out of it," Acampora said
of the continued rally that he expects. But he warned that the
subprime problems have "tentacles" that extend very
far.
Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
shares soared on Friday after six days of declines that brought
the stock to its lowest point in nearly four years. Countrywide
is the largest U.S. mortgage lender.
Giri Cherukuri, head trader at OakBrook Investments LLC in
Lisle, Illinois, said volatile days lie ahead.
"I think there will be more of the same in terms of volatility,"
Cherukuri said. "People are still trying to figure out
what companies are exposed, and to what degree, in terms of
financial companies. I think that's the big focus,"
NEW HOME SALES UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
One key piece of data does not come until Friday, when the
Commerce Department reports on new home sales for July.
Sales last month likely remained in a slump at an annual rate
of 820,000 homes, down from 834,000 in June, according to the
median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.
On the same day, the markets get a report on durable goods
orders for July. Economists expect a 1.0 percent increase following
a 1.3 percent rise in June.
The week's data includes the Conference Board Index of Leading
Economic Indicators, which is expected to rise 0.4 percent after
a decline of 0.3 percent in June. That report comes on Monday.
The week's list of companies reporting corporate earnings is
also short, with retailers in the majority.
Home improvement chain Lowe's Cos. Inc. (LOW.N: Quote, Profile,
Research) releases results on Monday. Analysts expect a small
increase from a year ago. The report will get special attention
because of the company's involvement in housing, and also because
rival Home Depot Inc. (HD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) recently
reported a 15 percent drop in profit.
Discount chain Target Corp. (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
reports on Tuesday. Rival Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote,
Profile, Research) recently posted earnings that were higher
than a year ago but beneath Wall Street's estimates.
Other retailers reporting earnings are Abercrombie & Fitch
Co. (ANF.N: Quote, Profile, Research), Limited Brands Inc. (LTD.N:
Quote, Profile, Research), Gap Inc. (GPS.N: Quote, Profile,
Research) and Staples Inc. (SPLS.O: Quote, Profile, Research).
Outside of the retailing arena, reports are due from medical
device maker Medtronic Inc. (MDT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)
on Tuesday and food company H.J. Heinz Co. (HNZ.N: Quote, Profile,
Research) on Friday. Heinz said on August 15 that its profit
would exceed Wall Street's forecasts.
(Wall St Week Ahead runs weekly. Questions or comments on this
column can be e-mailed to: cal.mankowski(at)reuters.com)
(Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch and Ellis Mnyandu)