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White people 'a minority by
2027'
Christopher Hope
London
Telegraph
Friday Aug 31, 2007
White people living in the UK's second biggest city are likely
to find themselves in a minority in 20 years' time, according
to researchers.
A team of demographers from Manchester University has claimed that
the number of white people living in Birmingham will be overtaken
by the number of those with other ethnic origins by 2027.
The news came as it emerged that 35 towns and cities in Britain
have at least one ward which is "minority white".
And experts have already forecast that Leicester could become
the first city in which white people are a minority in four years'
time.
Ludi Simpson, a social statistician at Manchester University,
said the Pakistani population in Birmingham was likely to double
by 2026, but with two-thirds of this increase due to the relatively
younger age profile of Pakistanis, rather than increased immigration.
(Article continues below)
Dr Simpson said: "The overall picture is one of rapid natural
growth plus some immigration, mainly of young spouses.
"Birmingham is likely to become a minority white city in
2027, but a diverse one in which the white population remains
more than twice the size of the Pakistani population which is
predicted to become one fifth of the district's population by
then."
But hopes that different ethnic groups could assimilate into
a "common identity" in towns and cities were dismissed
by Dr Sullivan as "utopian in quite a dangerous way"
and "completely unrealistic".
He added that the suburbs, rather than town and city centres
were the "sites of real tension".
"Lack of affordable housing, poor environments and anti-social
behaviour are the issues, not ethnic composition nor segregation
itself," he said.
Nissa Finney, also from Manchester University, told the Royal
Geographical Society's annual conference that 35 towns and cities
in Britain had at least one ward which was "minority white".
These included Birmingham, Burnley, Slough, Peterborough, Bolton
and Derby, as well as Brent, Tower Hamlets, Ealing and Newham
within London.
Miss Finney said the increasing proportion of non-whites in these
wards was more linked with "natural population dynamics"
like moving areas to be nearer family or friends, than with immigration.
She told the conference: "Clustering is the result of benign
and natural population dynamics. There is no evidence of self-segregation
or exceptional 'white flight'."
Last year, Trevor Phillips, the-then chairman of the Commission
for Equality and Human Rights, said that "tough decisions"
will have to be made as some more areas become "plural cities"
where no one race holds a majority.
Mr Phillips said: "Events across Europe have shown how segregation
breeds mistrust and fracture.
"The benefits of plural cities can be great, but we need
to look at the future and act responsibly."
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