Two scientists from the University of Sussex and Mexico's
University of Guanajuato appear to have confirmed that if
we're still around in 7.6 billion years, global warming will
be the least of our worries, since our beloved Mother Earth
will be drawn inexorably towards the Sun and snuffed from
existence.
Sussex Uni's Robert Smith and Guanajuato's Klaus-Peter Schroeder
got out their calculators to determine once and for all whether
Earth would escape a blazing death by spinning into a more
distant orbit around the Sun, or whether it's ultimately curtains.
The former theory suggests that, as the Sun expands into
a red giant, it will eject its outer gaseous layers, thereby
losing mass and weakening its gravitational grip on the Blue
Marble.
However, this get-out clause doesn't factor in tidal forces
or the drag of the Sun's outer layer, according to the doomsday
boffins. The Earth actually exerts its own (modest) gravitational
pull on the Sun, causing the face closest to us to bulge out
- an extrusion which constitutes bad long-term news.
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Smith explained to Space.com: "Just as the Earth is
pulling on the Sun's bulge, it's pulling on the Earth, and
that causes the Earth to slow in its orbit. It will spiral
back and finally end up inside the Sun."
In addition to this fatal attraction, the gaseous layers
escaping from the Sun will exacerbate the problem, creating
drag on Earth's orbit, further slowing it.
Smith said these crucial factors had hitherto been overlooked
in determining Earth's fate. He explained: "Although
people have looked at these problems before, we would claim
this is the best attempt that's been made to date, and probably
the most reliable. What we've done is to refine existing models
and to put the best calculations we can at each point in the
model."
Of course, while it's interesting to ponder our planet's
distant fate, we'll actually be long gone before the fireworks.
Smith predicted: "After a billion years or so you've
got an Earth with no atmosphere, no water and a surface temperature
of hundreds of degrees, way above the boiling point of water.
The Earth will become dry basically. It will become completely
impossible for life of any kind to exist. It's a pretty gloomy
forecast."
The researchers' findings will be published in the journal
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.