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More Leading Economists Say US Is Now In Recession
Will the White House and the Treasury be the last in the
country to admit the downturn?
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More leading economists have conceded that the US economy is now
in recession after figures, released on Friday, revealed a second
successive monthly fall in employment.
The Labor Department figures show that the number
of people laid off in the last month is at its highest for five
years with 63,000 cuts.
The figures would have been worse still had a 38,000
increase in government jobs not been factored in.
The Times
of London reported Sunday that the figures have "sealed
the question of whether America had entered its first recession
since the 2001 downturn."
"The most striking figure in the whole report
is that private sector payrolls shrank by 101,000 last month compared
to a modest 26,000 drop in January," said Paul Ashworth,
senior US economist at Capital Economics.
"A decline of that magnitude screams recession...The debate
is over,” Ashworth told the Times.
(Article continues below)
Other leading economists have had the following to say on the
matter:
- “A terrible report” that signals “no support
at all now for consumer spending growth” - Joshua Shapiro,
economist at MFR
- "Turn out the lights the parties over. We are in a recession."
- Joseph Brusuelas, IDEAglobal
- "The debate should no longer be about whether there is
or is not a recession, only about how deep it will be."
- Nigel Gault, Global Insight.
- “All the lights are flashing red... We’re in a
recession. I don’t think there is any doubt about it at
this point.” - Nariman Behravesh, chief economist
at Global Insight.
- “On the basis of the available evidence, I would say
we are in recession." - Martin Feldstein, former head
of National Bureau of Economic Research, the body that is regarded
as the official arbiter of whether America has entered a recession.
- “We now think the economy can be described as having
entered a recession in early 2008.” - Bruce Kasman,
chief economist at JP Morgan.
- “The economy is currently in recession. I believe we
are facing the most serious combination of macroeconomic and
financial stresses that the US has faced in a generation - and
possibly, much longer than that.” - Larry Summers,
the former US Treasury secretary.
- “We now believe the tax-rebate cheques will arrive too
late to prevent an outright recession. We look for modestly
negative GDP growth in both the first and second quarters of
2008." - Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers.
The technical definition of a recession in macroeconomics is
when there is a decline in a country's gross domestic product
(GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive
quarters of a year.
Last month the Commerce
Department reported that the gross domestic product
barely increased at a low 0.6 percent pace in the quarter that
ended Dec. 31.
The latest economists join America's most famous
investor, businessman and philanthropist Warren Buffett in their
opinion on the recession.
Buffett told
reporters last week that "by any commonsense
definition, we are in a recession."
In addition, a recent
survey by the National Association for Business
Economics revealed that 45 percent of economists are predicting
a recession in 2008.
Last week economists from HSBC and AIG, two of the
world's leading banks, warned of recession and hit out at the
'authorities' lack of action, stating that the 'shadow banking
system' may be in danger of a complete collapse.
The former chief economist of the World Bank, Joseph
Stiglitz, has also said that he believes the US economy
is probably already in recession.
Meanwhile, The White House continues its policy
of "if we don't say so, it's not reality" by continuing
to insist the economy is not in recession.
The corporate lapdog media naturally follows suit
with headlines such as Economists
Disagree on Whether the Country Actually Is in a Recession.
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