We all want to live well and no one wants their living
standard to decline. That makes sense, right? It's just
the way we are made.
What does not make any sense is the strange article of
faith that has descended over Washington, DC, that says
that no prices must ever be permitted to decline due to
recessionary pressures. All resources in the national treasury,
every conceivable monetary manipulation, all efforts of
every regulatory body must be marshaled toward the great
national goal of re-pumping the economy, which must never
ever be permitted to fall even a tiny bit
Welcome to the War on Recession, which is being pursued
with the same vehemence and folly as the War on Terror,
and will likely prove just as spectacularly destructive
of its own aims as well as liberty itself. Maybe we need
songs, banners, and little ribbon pins and car magnets too.
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Let's think about the big picture. The economy was overinflated
due to reckless monetary policy and government agencies
treating critical sectors such as housing as a democratic
right and thereby too big to fail. The trend dates back
decades but the bubble became insanely large only within
the last 5–10 years. Something had to give. And it
turns out that this was just the beginning. All sectors
were puffed up and inflated.
Can we agree that there was a problem, that not all was
well, despite appearances? I think we can. So what do we
do in this case? There has to be a downward correction,
but there's no reason to panic. A good correction is just
what a recovery needs to get going. Such is the nature of
the Fed-created business cycle.
So what could it possibly mean to claim that the economy
must never be allowed to recess? I'm thinking here of similar
claims.
"That drunk is sobering up. Quick, give him a shot
of tequila!"
"That druggie is coming out of his acid trip. Get
the syringe!"
"Don't look now but that insomniac is going to sleep.
Someone wake him!"
Now, it's fair to say that the person hollering out the
solution to each of the above scenarios doesn't really understand
the nature of the problem.
So it is with the Fed. It sees stocks falling, credit markets
under pressure, unemployment rising, investment falling.
But rather than conclude that all these factors represent
a bubble, it has the opposite response: keep the bubble
inflated at all costs!
It's time that we question the very foundations of this
war on recession. The recession is a regrettable but inevitable
backlash against a boom that was not justified by the fundamentals.
That last phrase is the critical thing. I am not saying
that the recession is the price we pay for economic growth.
Boom times are fabulous times, provided that they are rooted
in sound fundamentals. And what are those? Essentially it
is this: the timeframe of investment must match the timeframe
of society at large. If people are long-term oriented and
saving money, resources become available for investment
in the future. When production is completed, there are consumers
to buy. But if no one is saving money and there is no sound
store of capital, there are no resources to invest –
unless, of course, the Fed creates that money. The money
the Fed creates is wholly illusory, a fiction of investors'
imaginations. It will vanish when the economy wakes up to
reality.
This is an example of investment unjustified by fundamentals.
What to do in that case? There must be a correction. There
is nothing the Fed or the Congress can do about it. It certainly
shouldn't attempt to prevent it. To attempt to prevent the
correction is like turning into the skid: it only makes
it worse.
All this nonsense about digging ourselves out of recession
through government intervention began with the New Deal.
Before then, government didn't do much at all about the
downside of the business cycle. And guess what? Recessions
were short and less-than lethal for economic health. Indeed,
they were the essential foundations of future recovery.
All that changed with FDR, who used the economic downturn
as the great excuse to make himself the economic Führer
of America.
But here is the amazing fact. Not once has this strategy
worked. Not in the New Deal. Not in the 1970s. Not in the
1980s. Not in the 1990s. Not once has government done anything
to restore prosperity during a slump. What happens again
and again is that government spends, the Fed inflates, the
regulators punish, there is wailing and gnashing of teeth,
and then, at some point, we hit bottom, and normalcy begins
to return again. The most government can do is prolong the
period at the bottom. Otherwise, it is just wasting resources.
Take a look at Murray Rothbard's book The Panic of 1819.
Here we have America's first big financial panic. The public
was going nuts demanding answers. Congressmen proposed this
and that. Debates raged in the papers. But government ultimately
took no action at all. Sure enough, the panic went away
on its own. So it was in 1920 and 1921. The government didn't
intervene and voila normalcy returned.
Here's another strange thing about this anti-recession
mania. For years we've been hearing from the environmentalists
that we need to live more simply, do without, cut back,
drive bikes not cars, and generally lower our standard of
living and look after the well being of plants and lizards
and things. It turns out that Americans don't really go
for this message. A slight downtick in the price of the
house causes hysteria.
So as we look forward to the recession there is at least
this one silver lining. The environmentalists won't get
very far with their message that we should embrace poverty
and call it our own.