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Inevitable Turkey-Iran-Syria-Russia
alliance
Turkish
Weekly
Monday November 5, 2007
The Middle East has acquired immense strategic value as one
of the determining fulcrums in the global balance of power due
to its being the world's largest known storehouse of low-cost
energy supplies. The region's geopolitical importance, the kaleidoscopic
nature of politics among its states, the presence of volatile
social and political forces within them and the interference of
world superpowers all insure that the region will remain a potentially
explosive source of tension for years.
Emboldened by its military strength after World War II, Moscow
prepared to carve up its southern neighbors. It demanded territorial
concessions and control of the Bosporus from Turkey and refused
to withdraw from northern Iran, which it had occupied in 1941.
Turkey and Iran rebuffed Soviet coercive diplomacy with the support
of the United States and became key allies in the American effort
to contain Soviet expansion.
The Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) was a defense alliance
between Turkey, Iran, Pakistan and Great Britain. Originally named
the Baghdad Pact, the name was changed when the Iraqi revolution
led Iraq to withdraw in 1959. The United States had observer status
in the alliance but was not a party to the treaty. The fall of
the shah removed the American shield from Iran, sounded the death
knell for the anti-Soviet CENTO alliance and sailed Iran towards
new horizons.
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Now the same faith is on the road for Turkey. The measureless
and injudicious backup given by the occupying power in Iraq --
the US government -- to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and
to Massoud Barzani, the former tribal leader of the Iraqi Kurds
and now the so-called leader of the Iraqi Kurdish region.
Turkey, taking into consideration the ongoing assaults by the
PKK terrorists in the southeastern regions and the measureless
backup given by US government to Iraqi Kurds, has drawn up a new
strategic alliance policy that weakens ties with the US and strengthens
relations with Iran and Syria, their millennium-long neighbors.
The US has failed to keep its promise to Turkey to confront the
PKK. Turkey now feels that it has no choice but to attack the
PKK's sanctuaries in northern Iraq together with Iran.
Iran is also suffering from similar assaults originating from
the same terrorist group located in the Kurdish region of northern
Iraq under the name of Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK).
The US and Iran are increasingly at odds over a range of issues,
and Turkey has stood nearby the US as an old and devoted ally
for the past 57 years.
Surprisingly, US strategists seem to be pushing Turkey and Iran
together to fight against violent Kurdish attacks or into an alliance
to fight together against the common enemy in the region at the
cost of losing Turkey as a faithful ally. The sympathy of Turkish
people towards the US had fallen sharply over the past couple
of years, and it will take decades for US to recover it.
It seems it is now mandatory for Turkey and Iran to form a common
cooperative ground in regard to common problems and interests.
New and stronger cooperative action in the economic field by Turkey
and Iran will play a major role in the eradication of the political
distrust and concerns between the two countries. The parties have
announced an upcoming doubling of the volume of their trade.
Both countries have already agreed on the elimination of the
main source of discord: support for each other's separatist and
oppositional organizations. Iran has committed to adding the PKK
to its list of "terrorist organizations." Turkey has
done the same concerning the Iranian group "Mojahedin Halk."
The second stage is the escalation of high-level cooperation
between Turkey, Iran and Syria and this is moving forward, as
well.
Aversion to American global policy, in particular to the actions
of the US in Iraq, the common allies of Syria and Iran, and also
shared economic interests, will lead to the merging of the political
strategies of Russia and Turkey. Countries that were previously
historical opponents will turn into partners in the creation of
a new Eurasian coalition.
The final effect of the region's aversion to American policies
will be the formation of the "union of four:" Russia,
Turkey, Iran and Syria. Of course, this rapprochement between
Ankara, Moscow, Damascus and Teheran will definitely affect Washington's
position in the Middle East.
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