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Commentary: Geopolitical nightmare
Arnaud De Borchgrave
UPI
Tuesday November 6, 2007
One of the world's eight nuclear powers, Pakistan is now a failing
state out of control where Taliban, al-Qaida and their supporters
have secured their privileged sanctuaries in the tribal areas
on the Afghan border; reoccupied the Red Mosque in the center
of Islamabad; launched suicide bombers in widely scattered parts
of this Muslim country of 160 million. More than any other country
in the world, Pakistan is the breeding ground of Islamic terrorism.
Yet it enjoys the status of "major non-NATO ally" of
the U.S. Now 60 years old, Pakistan has lived under military dictatorship
for half its life.
In 1999, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the army chief of staff (the country's
supreme military commander), seized power and decreed martial
law. Last week, with Pakistan spinning out of control, Musharraf
staged his second coup, decreed a state of emergency (tantamount
to martial law), dismissed the Supreme Court, suspended the constitution,
arrested some 1,500 politicians, lawyers and human rights activists,
closed down all 50 TV channels except the one controlled by the
government, imposed self-censorship on the print media, and appointed
new Supreme Court judges willing to follow orders.
Twice deposed as prime minister, Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan
Oct. 18 after eight years of self-imposed exile, in what she thought
was a power-sharing deal with Musharraf. He had agreed to doff
his uniform and run for president in a free election. As head
of her Pakistan People's Party, Pakistan's most popular, Bhutto
would run in elections scheduled for January and if her party
won a majority, she would become prime minister. Musharraf also
guaranteed the deletion of a little constitutional impediment
- political leaders are barred from serving three times as head
of government. Everything began to unravel when two suicide bombers
attacked her triumphal homecoming parade, killing 142 and injuring
over 400.
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Musharraf, meanwhile, got himself re-elected president by a majority
of members of four provincial assemblies, the federal assembly
and the senate - but all opposition parties boycotted the balloting
and Musharraf feared the Supreme Court would not validate his
election. His second coup d'etat followed.
Bhutto flew back to Dubai, her residence in exile, to reassure
her three children who had watched the attack on television. She
returned to Karachi as security forces were deploying throughout
major cities. In a Nov. 3 e-mail to this reporter, Bhutto said,
"Those who support the Taliban and oppose me continue to
have high positions in government. Musharraf doesn't remove them
nor has he kept any of the promises he made guaranteed by third
parties. Yesterday (before Musharraf's state of emergency), television
channels broadcast a meeting in Bajaur (one of the seven tribal
agencies that border Afghanistan) by a mullah claiming that he
and his group will kill me in Rawalpindi (where she was scheduled
to attend a PPP rally, now banned)."
Bhutto's e-mail added, "The fact that militants hold open
meetings without fear of retaliation proves the Musharraf regime
is totally inept, unwilling or colluding in their expansion."
"Our rapprochement talks with Musharraf have foundered in
the quicksand of his failing promises. There is no move toward
democracy. It's either back to dictatorship (1999) or back to
a rigged election (2002). Or Musharraf is replaced with a pliant
interim government for two years run from behind the scene by
the same military hardliners. They claim in 2 years they can push
NATO out of Afghanistan and replace president (Hamid) Karzai with
one of their own betting that the U.S. will be caught up in presidential
elections for one year and it will take another year for the new
administration to settle in."
By way of conclusion, Bhutto's e-mail said, "The situation
is grim, the risks are high, but I have faith in the people to
turn around the problem if we can get a real election." That
horizon seems to be receding. In recent opinion polls, Musharraf
was in single digits, President Bush in the teens and Osama Bin
Laden close to 50 percent. Pakistan's extremist militants reject
a woman as the nation's leader, as well as an alliance with the
United States.
Mahmoud Al Hasan, a leader of the extremist Hezb-ul-Mujahedeen,
the militant wing of the religious Jamaat-e-Islami party, described
Bhutto and Musharraf as "slaves" of the U.S. Bhutto
had the added distinction of being labeled an infidel. "What
should be the reaction of jihadis?" Hasan asked. "They
should definitely kill her. She is an enemy of Islam and jihadis."
There are several hundred, if not thousands, of jihadis willing
to commit suicide to assassinate Bhutto. This, in turn, could
trigger a civil war in a country that has an estimated 50 nuclear
weapons and delivery systems. The military are convinced it was
Bush who compelled Musharraf to deploy some 100,000 troops in
the tribal agencies on the Afghan border to eradicate Taliban
and al-Qaida infrastructure. But their heart was never in it.
And Musharraf himself confirmed U.S. pressure in his memoir, "In
the Line of Fire." More than 1,000 Pakistani troops were
killed, over 3,000 injured and almost 300 captured. A number chose
to stay with the Taliban fighters and the others were released
after pledging not to attack their "brothers."
With Taliban and al-Qaida sanctuaries now secure in the foothills
of the Hindu Kush, the NATO campaign to whittle down Taliban's
guerrilla units in Afghanistan could last for years. But those
doing the fighting with U.S. units - Canadian, British and Dutch
contingents - were beginning to lose political and public opinion
support at home. Logistics were costly with no end in sight. What
they originally thought might be a two- to three-year peacekeeping
commitment could now take five to 10 more years. The Afghan army,
according to a Canadian assessment, won't be able to manage security
till 2015. Even German, French and Italian units, stationed in
relatively peaceful zones far from the Afghan border, could feel
growing reluctance on their respective home fronts to keep them
there. The narco-state stigma also rankled opposition politicians
in Berlin, Paris and Rome. But opium is critical to the Afghan
economy.
Gen. Sir David Richards, who commanded the Afghan mission until
last February, said, "There are too few troops to conduct
the operation in a manner that meets the basic rules of a counterinsurgency
campaign" and that "we need a doubling of forces - and
probably a lot more than that - if we are to achieve minimum goals."
That would double the 41,000-strong NATO force to more than 80,000.
The future of NATO hangs in the balance.
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