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Account Management
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With the dollar's fall, intervention idea gains force

AFP
Monday November 12, 2007

The unrelenting fall of the US dollar has stirred growing talk of currency intervention, but for now such a move remains improbable, analysts say.

"The depreciation of the dollar is gaining speed, and what has so far been an orderly correction in the dollar is at risk of degenerating into a more violent correction," said Stephen Jen and Charles St-Arnaud of investment bank Morgan Stanley.

If the dollar continues to weaken, the potential costs to the Group of Seven rich nations quickly will wipe out any benefits gained, the analysts wrote in a note to clients.

"It is not too early contemplating the risk of coordinated interventions by the G7," they said, adding that it may take several weeks for G7 members to find common ground on the issue.

(Article continues below)

"History shows that multilateral, coordinated interventions have been key in establishing turning points in multi-year trends in major currencies in the past three decades," they added.

What could spur the process is the steepness of the dollar's fall against other major currencies: the greenback lost 5.4 percent of its value against the euro and 6.8 percent against the yen in the July-September period.

The decline, driven by the US housing slump and credit woes, quickened this week after a Chinese official indicated Chinese foreign-exchange reserves should diversify away from the dollar.

Full article here.

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