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Ron Paul and the Four Horsemen
James Ostrowski
Lew
Rockwell.com
Tuesday September 4, 2007
And
then there were five.
With
Fred Thompson
in the race, there are five contenders for the Republican nomination:
Rudy, Fred, McCain, Romney, all pro-war, and Ron Paul. The rest
are vanity candidates or are looking to be Vice-President (go
figure).
What
separates these five is that they are national candidates.
Why not Huckabee, who is enjoying a boost from Iowa? Because he’s
not a national candidate. If this man cannot project power into
the neighboring state of Texas and has to "cut and run"
and make a phony excuse that’s he busy, he’s not a national candidate.
He cleverly focused his scarce resources in Iowa, an ideal state
for his message. Lightning will not strike again for him.
I
think it’s too early to write off McCain. He’s still in double
digits nationally and he’s a tough old bird with a compelling
personal story and lingering media support.
Why
is Ron Paul a contender at only three percent? Polls tell us something
real but not all that is real. Ron consistently surpasses that
number in straw polls
and online polls. Both measure a critical factor in the primaries
and caucuses that "scientific" polls miss: intensity
of support. He draws the largest crowds of any Republican.
He is the only Republican candidate who generates actual enthusiasm.
Much of the poll strength of the other four is based on name recognition
and money. Their significance will fade over time as Ron’s name
recognition and treasury grow and their treasuries empty.
(Article continues below)
So,
it’s Ron versus the four horsemen of the Iraq apocalypse. The
war is not a political liability for Ron in his pursuit of the
nomination. While most Republicans continue inexplicably to support
the war, 69 percent
of Americans do not. Close to forty percent of Republicans either
oppose Bush’s handling of the war or are undecided. In those states
with open
or "modified" primaries, Ron should pick up votes
from Independents and Democrats.
Further,
the notion that Ron cannot win the votes of pro-war voters assumes
they are all single-issue voters. Surely, many will vote for Ron
because they like the bulk of his remaining views. With the compressed
primary calendar, there should be several pro-war candidates splitting
the vote in the early critical primaries. Thus, Ron Paul’s
antiwar stance is not an obstacle to his nomination.
It
is difficult to think of any other major policy issue about which
they can outflank or outthink Ron Paul in a debate: taxes, inflation,
immigration, spending, health care? Ron is master of them all
and has the record to back up his rhetoric.
The
most significant thing about this five-way race is the lack of
enthusiasm for any candidate other than Ron Paul. The four horsemen
do not attract enthusiastic crowds or much positive media and
their poll numbers have been flat
for many months. That being the case, they will have to work hard
and spend lavishly on targeted states to generate momentum. Most
of the money will be spent attacking the other three and they
will not be short of material. The four horsemen have lots of
question marks in their lengthy and undistinguished records and
many policy anomalies and flip-flops to explain.
With
their images overexposed and with the public under-enthused, the
big four will have to pay dearly for additional support. Consider
that Romney spent millions in Iowa while Ron Paul spent perhaps
$150,000. It will come down to a war of attrition with the four
horsemen struggling to keep their expensive "standing armies"
in the field against Ron’s lean, mean and ubiquitous guerilla
army.
Finally,
Ron Paul’s secret weapon, Hillary Clinton, has all but wrapped
up the nomination. Obama has run out of steam and Edwards is going
nowhere. The prospect of another President Clinton will focus
the minds of Republican primary voters. They need to realize that
only a Republican who represents a sharp break from the Gingrich-Bush-era
legacy of sleaze, corruption, bloated spending and belligerence
can beat Hillary in November 2008.
Ron
Paul, the Dave
Wottle of presidential politics, is in position to score the
biggest upset in American political history.
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INFOWARS:
BECAUSE THERE'S A WAR ON FOR YOUR MIND
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